Número 12

12-05-2026

The health of the Aquifer of the Yucatan Peninsula. The Report Card: A Tool for Sustainability

Paulo Salles, Roger Pacheco-Castro, Elsa Noreña-Barroso, Karol Granados-Martínez, Erick Soto-García, César Canul Macario and Armando Carmona Escalante
The Yucatan Peninsula Aquifer (APY) is one of the most critical and unique freshwater reserves in Mexico; a fundamental pillar for life in a region that practically lacks surface water bodies. This underground system is defined by its karst nature of high porosity, which facilitates the creation of intricate dissolution channels, cenotes, and caverns that are home to exceptional endemic biodiversity. However, the integrity of this vital resource is under unprecedented pressure due to rapid population growth, expansion of tourism infrastructure, industrial development, and intensive agricultural activities. Against this backdrop, the National Coastal Resilience Laboratory (LANRESC, www.lanresc.mx) coordinated in 2024-2025 the creation of the first APY Report Card (RC), a scientific instrument designed to assess the health of the socio-ecosystem and guide informed decision-making.


 
 LANRESC, 2025

X-RAY OF REGIONAL PRESSURE 
Quantitative data compiled in the technical report provides compelling information on the magnitude of the challenges the region faces:
  • Until May 2025, more than 39 thousand active water concessions were registered in the peninsula, with the state of Yucatan concentrating most of them.
  • Between 2019 and 2023, the annual forest loss (deforestation) was alarming: Campeche lost more than 29 thousand hectares per year, Yucatan more than 27 thousand, and Quintana Roo more than 14 thousand.
  • The total population of the three states went from about 2.39 million in 1990 to an estimated 5.57 million by 2025, doubling the pressure on water extraction.
  • The average cost per cubic meter of water has increased significantly, from between five and eight pesos in 2003 to between 12 and 20 pesos in 2023.
  • Hurricanes play a dual role: while they cause disasters, they are vital for recharge, as observed with Tropical Storm Cristobal in 2020, which raised the water table by five meters in just six days.

A COLLABORATIVE AND TRANSDISCIPLINARY APPROACH
The development of the APY Report Card was not an isolated process, but the result of a collective effort that brought together 89 key actors (32 from academia, 30 from government, 21 civil society organizations, and six from the private sector). The methodology used was based on the framework proposed by Costanzo et al. (2017), adapted by LANRESC to include a field validation phase to ensure that data was representative. This process was structured in six fundamental technical steps that allowed the transition from geographical delimitation to the effective communication of the results.

The process began with Step 0, which consisted of the delimitation and regionalization of the study area, ensuring that the aquifer recharge, flow, and discharge zones were included. Subsequently, in Step 1, the essential values that need to be protected (such as water quality and cultural heritage) and the threats that degrade them (such as agrochemical pollution and uncontrolled urbanization) were identified. In Step 2, specific indicators were selected, looking for measurable metrics relevant to the system. Step 3 involved the technical challenge of defining scientific or legal thresholds for each indicator, establishing the boundaries between a “Good,” “Fair,” or “Poor” condition. In Step 4, data was standardized on a scale from zero to 100 to allow calculation of final scores and grades. Finally, Step 5 focused on communicating results through visual formats and extensive technical reports for public dissemination.

REGIONALIZATION: THE TERRITORY’S DIVERSITY
To avoid simplistic diagnoses based on overall averages, the technical team divided the APY into nine study subregions. This subdivision was based on the Planning Units proposed in the Regional Water Program 2021-2024 of the National Water Commission (CONAGUA, 2022). The regions identified reflect the hydrogeological and socio-economic particularities of the peninsula: 
  • Yucatan: includes northern Yucatan (with the strategic Cenotes Ring), eastern Yucatan (characterized by fractures and cenotes), and southern Yucatan (area of high permeability in the Ticul mountain range). 
  • Quintana Roo: includes northern Quintana Roo (with high tourist pressure and the Holbox fracture), central Quintana Roo (connected to Sian Ka’an), and southern Quintana Roo (linked to the Rio Hondo region). 
  • Campeche: includes Norte Campeche (urban pressure and Los Petenes Reserve), Sur Campeche (network of hydrological basins), and Candelaria Campeche (critical recharge area in the southwest). 

In addition, a 10 kilometer coastal and marine area of influence was established to monitor the interaction between continental freshwater discharges and the health of reef ecosystems. 

SOCIO-ECOSYSTEM DIAGNOSIS
The final APY assessment yielded an overall rating of “C. Regular,” indicating a moderate socio-environmental health condition that requires immediate attention to avoid irreversible deterioration. This rating considered seven thematic clusters [Box 1].

For each thematic axis, indicators were identified from a transdisciplinary approach; 23 in total, as shown in the box. Each was analyzed individually. The results of the analysis are presented below, organized into four groups. 

1. Hydrological Resources 
This group evaluated the availability and quality of water and obtained worrying nuances. While the “Average Annual Groundwater Availability” was rated “good” (due to current withdrawal not exceeding 40 percent of natural availability in many areas), “Percentage of Treated Wastewater” received a “poor” rating, evidencing a critical deficit in sanitation infrastructure. Water quality and vulnerability to saline intrusion remained at “regular” levels, reflecting the gradual degradation of the resource in coastal and urban areas. 

2. Biodiversity and Ecosystems 
The indicators on this axis show a system under tension. Knowledge about freshwater fish species and stygobionts (cave fauna) was rated as “regular signaling the need for greater scientific monitoring efforts. On the other hand, the coverage of natural vegetation and wetlands also obtained a “regular” grade, impacted by the change in land use and the fragmentation of the landscape. 

3. Climate Change and Economy 
Vulnerability to climate change was rated as “good” in terms of overall adaptive capacity, but variability in maximum temperatures and precipitation patterns show “regular” trends that could compromise future recharge. In the economic sphere, the “Poverty Situation” was described as “bad,” since in many municipalities, more than 60 percent of the population faces social deprivations that limit their access to basic water and sanitation services. 

4. Water governance and culture  
Legislation updating and the level of chlorination of drinking water are at a “regular” level. However, environmental education faces a greater challenge: both the number of “Spaces for Water Culture” in operation and the potential population served by these centers received a “bad” rating, indicating a lack of communication between institutional management and citizen awareness. 
 

UNPLANNED URBAN GROWTH MODIFIES THE HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE AND REDUCES FRESHWATER RECHARGE

THE SYSTEMIC MODEL: “EVERYTHING IS CONNECTED”
A key output of the Report Card is the conceptual outline entitled “Everything is Connected: Human and Nature.” This model illustrates how human actions trigger ripple effects in the aquifer (see infographic on p. 372). For example, unplanned urban growth leads to soil waterproofing, which modifies the hydrological cycle and reduces freshwater recharge, exacerbating saline intrusion on the coast. In addition, the excessive use of agrochemicals in agriculture not only affects groundwater quality but also causes biodiversity loss and increases the risk of vector-borne diseases. This systemic approach underscores that harmonious coexistence with nature is being challenged by modern stressors such as gentrification and real estate speculation.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR RESILIENCE 
To improve the status of the APY and move from “regular” to “good” evaluation, the report proposes seven collaboratively developed strategic lines of action: 
  • Pollution reduction: Strengthening wastewater treatment infrastructure with artificial wetlands and eco-technology. 
  • Hydro-biocultural planning: Implement a preservation plan that integrates the knowledge of local Maya communities with academia and the private sector. 
  • Sustainable urban development: Prioritize ecological preservation plans that maintain strategic green areas for infiltration of water into the subsoil. 
  • Citizen science: Promote environmental education campaigns and the registration of biodiversity in cenotes through platforms such as iNaturalist. 
  • Evidence-based governance: Updating aquifer technical studies to regulate, monitor, or cancel inactive or inefficient concession titles. 
  • Public investment: Increase state and federal budgets for water quality monitoring and research on the impact of tourism. 
  • Integrated climate research: Develop studies that link rainfall patterns and water availability to public health and infrastructure management. 

CONCLUSION
The Yucatan Peninsula Aquifer Report Card 2025 is more than just a diagnosis; it is a call to multisectoral action. It reveals that while the aquifer remains a robust source of life, it is at a tipping point where inaction could compromise the region’s long-term viability. The integration of scientific data with the participation of various social actors has made it possible to build a clear roadmap that recognizes that in this territory, the health of nature is inseparable from human prosperity. The preservation of the APY today depends on a kind of water governance as deep and connected as is the karst system it seeks to protect.

Paulo Salles is responsible for the creation of the Sisal Academic Unit of the Institute of Engineering (Coastal Engineering and Processes Laboratory, LIPC). He is a senior researcher at UNAM’s Institute of Engineering. He holds a degree in civil engineering from the Faculty of Engineering (UNAM).

Roger Pacheco Castro holds a PhD in geophysical fluid dynamics from Florida State University (FSU). He completed a postdoctoral fellowship at the LIPC of the Institute of Engineering. He collaborates with the National Laboratory for Coastal Resilience.

Elsa Noreña-Barroso is an academic technician at the Chemistry Unit in Sisal, Faculty of Chemistry, UNAM, and head of the LIPC. She is a Level I National Researcher. She holds a master’s degree in marine biology and a PhD in marine sciences from the Center for Research and Advanced Studies (CINVESTAV) Mérida Unit.

Karol Granados-Martínez is the operational coordinator of LANRESC. She was an assistant professor in the Department of Water and Environmental Sciences at Technological Institute of Sonora (ITSON), Ciudad Obregón, Sonora. She holds a master’s degree in natural resources from ITSON.

Erick Soto-García is a biologist with a master’s degree in marine sciences and limnology from UNAM. He is the technical coordinator for monitoring and data analysis at the LIPC of UNAM’s Institute of Engineering, Sisal Unit.

César Canul-Macario studied at the Autonomous University of Yucatán (UADY). He obtained his doctorate at the LIPC of UNAM’s Institute of Engineering. He is a hydrogeology consultant, and his main research focus is karst coastal hydrogeology. He collaborates with CONAGUA Quintana Roo.

Armando Carmona Escalante is the coordinator of LANRESC’s Report Cards and a professor in the bachelor’s program in sustainable coastal zone management.

Acknowledgments: This project was funded by the National Geographic Society (2024-2025), with additional support from LANRESC. We also thank the LANRESC operational team and facilitators for their invaluable work in creating and producing the Report Card (Andrea Xochiquetzal Reyes Aguilar, Jazmín Deneb Ortigosa Gutiérrez, Daniel Morales Méndez, Meztli Jashui Hernández Cristerna, Marta Paola Rodríguez González, Sandra Gallegos Fernández, and Alberto Guerra Escamilla), the Institute of Engineering of the UNAM, Sisal Unit (particularly Professor Juan Alberto Gómez Liera and Dr. José López González for their field support), as well as all the participants in the various stages of this project.


References
CONAGUA (27 de mayo de 2022). Programa Hídrico Regional 2021-2024. Región Hidrológico-Administrativa XII Península de Yucatán. México. https://files.conagua.gob.mx/conagua/generico/PNH/PHR_2021-2024_RHA_XII_Pen%C3%ADnsula_de_Yucat%C3%A1n.pdf.

Costanzo, Simon D.; Blancard, Catherine; Davidson, Sarah; Dennison, William C.; Escurra, Jorge; Freeman, Sarah; Fries, Alexandra; Kelsey, R. Heath; Krchnak, Karin; Sherman, Jay; Thieme, Michelle, & Vargas-Nguyen, Vanessa (2017). Practitioner’s Guide to Developing River Basin Report Cards. Cambridge: IAN Press. https://ian.umces.edu/site/assets/files/11191/practitioners-guide-to-developing-river-basin-report-cards.pdf

LANRESC (2025). Tarjeta de reporte del Acuífero de la Península de Yucatán. México. https://lanresc.mx/media/public/files/TR_APY_web_paginas.pdf

Rodríguez González, M. P., Reyes Aguilar, A. X., Carmona-Escalante, A., Ortigosa Gutiérrez, J. D., Gallegos-Fernández, S., Morales Méndez, D., Hernández Cristerna, M. J., Guerra Escamilla, A., Granados Martinez, K. P., & Salles, P. (2025). Tarjeta de Reporte del Acuífero de la Península de Yucatán (Versión 1). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17972279 
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