Migration Dynamics. Human Flows across Mexico and the Americas: a Necessary Review

MEXICO: A CENTURY-LONG MIGRATION HISTORY
Every one of us has surely met someone who has migrated, or at least heard of the rising numbers of migrants, or even that we ourselves have migrated. Although only a small per centage of the global population consists of individuals living outside their birth country (only 3.5 per cent, IOM, 2022), migration is an issue that captures the attention of the media, authorities, the private sector, and society at large. Moreover, there is a prevailing perception that migration increases and that it poses a significant problem. Let us examine the facts.

Mexico has a long history of close coexistence with migration. Even before the establishment of its borders with the United States in 1848, Mexicans have been traveling to work in that country to meet its labor demands. This has led to the formation of a large community of nationals who have settled there: it is estimated that around 10 per cent of all people born in Mexico now reside in the United States.

For several decades, the dynamics were relatively consistent: predominantly men migrated to the United States, often on a temporary or circular basis (going to work the crops seasonally and returning to Mexico the rest of the time), seeking better economic opportunities and higher income. This migration was facilitated by strategies such as the Bracero Program, between 1942 and 1964, and certain types of visas that still exist. However, over time, migration has grown in irregular conditions, with individuals crossing the border without authorization, generally due to a lack of necessary documents (visa and passport). Many of these irregular migrants followed the footsteps of those who migrated with a permit or embarked on an independent migration project.

In recent years, migration has become increasingly diverse: more women, individuals of various ages, and those with different levels of education have joined the migration endeavor. Particularly, women transitioned from being viewed solely as companions to playing a significant, autonomous role in the migration process. Even in the last two decades, as the migration of skilled people (those with a bachelor’s degree or higher) has grown more rapidly than less skilled migration, women are key players in this process (Lozano-Ascencio & Gandini, 2010).

As time passed, the policies of the United States—and of several other countries in the global North—shifted from being of “open doors” to introducing more stringent controls. As a Consequence, crossing borders without papers has become increasingly challenging due to the proliferation of barriers: higher and more sophisticated walls, increased border patrols, cameras, sensors, and drones. As a result, people began to stay longer in the United States, and the traditional circular migration pattern gradually decreased. In essence, as the risks associated with migration have increased, people have become less likely to take the risk and have opted for a more permanent solution.

As part of its control and containment strategies, the United States has systematically deported large numbers of irregular migrants across various administrations and time periods. This has led to the emergence of a distinct community of returnees, comprising individuals who were deported by the immigration authorities and those who voluntarily returned to Mexico due to various reasons.

MEXICO: TRANSIT TERRITORY
Up to this point we have summarized the migratory relationship between Mexico and the United States. But it is also important to consider other regional mobility dynamics in which Mexico has been involved and, particularly, how it has acquired distinctive characteristics in recent years. People from Central America, especially Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, have long been migrating to the United States. However, it was during the 1980s that violent political situations, coupled with economic instability and insecurity, became a major driving force behind this migration. Although civil conflicts in those countries formally ended following the signing of peace treaties in the subsequent decade, migration did not stop. On the contrary, it continued to grow, fueled by the political and economic uncertainty plaguing the region, as well as the influence of family and acquaintance networks. These networks, as in the Mexican case and in many others, shape migratory flows by defining the orientation and directionality of movements, strengthening certain origins and destinations, as well as the routes along which migrants move.

Mexico has been more than just a country of departure and return for migrants, for a long time now it has also served as a transit point. The risks faced by people transiting through Mexican territory to reach the north of the country have been widely documented. Irregular migration often involves taking greater risks—such as traveling on top of trains like “La Bestia”—the payment of smugglers and traffickers, and being vulnerable to criminal organizations that rob, extort, and abuse them along the way.

Despite the fluctuations in migration patterns, the flow of people to the northern part of the continent has never ceased. The conditions that encourage migration have been shifting, and one emerging trend is the rise in forced migration, brought on by circumstances such as human conflicts, systematic and structural violence, environmental disasters and climate changerelated issues, among others. As a result, the reasons for migration have expanded beyond economic motivations to include the urgent need to escape dire situations in the migrants’ countries of origin.

This is a global trend. By the end of 2023, there were 114 million forcibly displaced people worldwide, a staggering increase from the approximately 40 million just a decade prior (UNHCR, 2023). This means that forced displacement has tripled, and one out of every 73 people globally has been forced to leave their homes. The Latin American and Caribbean region has mirrored this global pattern of the systematic increase in forced migration: one out of every five people displaced by violence worldwide hails from this region (UNHCR, 2022). Mexico has not been immune to this trend. The number of forcibly displaced individuals has been growing systematically and persistently and, concomitantly, the number of people seeking refuge in the country has also grown.

MEXICO: WAITING POINT AND LAND OF ASYLUM AND RESETTLEMENT
Since the enactment of Mexico’s Law on Refuge, Political Asylum and Complementary Protection in 2011, up until 2024, refugee applications have increased exponentially year after year. Over the course of a decade, Mexico has received 577,443 applications for refugee status from 153 nationalities (Portal Nacional de Transparencia, 2024), and during this period, it has as granted refugee states 120,957 people (COMAR, 2024). While many individuals are certainly being forced to flee their home countries due to a range of political, institutional, economic, political, social and environmental crises, not all reasons are recognized in national or international law as valid grounds for refugee status. Therefore, not all those who fall under the broader notion of forced migration are granted refugee status.

At the end of 2018, a new form of migration emerged: the caravan phenomenon. A distinctive characteristic of those who participated in them is the diversity of reasons behind their migration. While some individuals have been driven by economic or labor concerns, others have been compelled by climatic and environmental problems such as extreme droughts, floods and hurricanes, as well as natural disasters like earthquakes in their communities. Some have fled due to persecution and threats from gangs and organized crime, violation of rights by autocratic regimes, institutional crises, and so on. In many cases, the motivations are mixed, with individuals driven by multiple reasons rather than one. These types of migratory movements have been referred to as “mixed flows” as groups of people migrate along the same routes, often in irregular conditions, with diverse motivations. This blurs the line between forced and voluntary migration, making it challenging to distinguish between the two.

Caravan migration exhibits three distinctive characteristics: a) it is a cheaper way to migrate, as individuals do not have to pay coyotes or intermediaries, b) the visibility and collective nature of migrating in large groups that provides a sense of protection, in contrast to the more traditional irregular migration that aimed to remain hidden but was vulnerable to criminal organizations, and c) digital social networks play a central role in the organization of these caravans and the creation of care and protection strategies along the migration route (Gandini, 2020).

Since the emergence of this phenomenon, around half a dozen high-profile caravans of great impact have been identified, along with numerous smaller caravans, which has been recognized as “trickle” caravan migration. Migrating in these relatively spontaneously formed groups, largely on foot through various countries, has become a persistent feature across the country.

This same visibility, initially sought by migrants as means of protection, also had the opposite effect: it sparked widespread media coverage, which generated concern among the governments of the migrants’ intended destination countries, particularly the United States. In response, Donald Trump’s administration threatened Mexico with higher trade taxes if the country failed to halt migration. Thus, the U. S. government intensified its efforts to externalize migration control, which involves collaboration with other countries, in this case Mexico, to act as a barrier to migration before the individuals reach their southern border.

In this context, the Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP), also known as “Stay in Mexico”, were measures introduced by the U. S. government in early 2019. This policies obliged Spanishspeaking asylum seekers to wait in Mexican territory throughout their process. Prior to this, in November 2018, the same administration had implemented the Meetering or “the list”. Under the pretext of having insufficient resources, the establishment of a daily quota in the processing of asylum petitions led to many people being left out and forced to wait in Mexican territory. Thus, Mexico started to consolidate itself as a waiting territory for many populations.

These measures unfolded in a context where people from Central America were no longer the only ones arriving or passing through Mexico. The Haitian population, forced to leave their country due to a series of crisis including economic hardships, violence and insecurity: in addition to being the poorest nation on the continent, it has faced various natural events—a devastating earthquake and a cholera outbreak in 2010, and the hurricanes of 2012 and 2016—as well as unstable political conditions. About 25 per cent of its population resides abroad, scattered primarily in Brazil and Chile, but also in Mexico and other neighboring nations.

In recent years, an increasing number of individuals from Africa and Asia have been arriving in Mexico through various air, sea and land routes. This migration flow typically occurs under irregular conditions, compounded by ethnic, geographic, cultural and linguistic challenges that further hinders their possibilities of integration.

Venezuelan migration stands as the largest human displacement in recent Latin American and Caribbean history and the second largest globally, following that of Syria. Surpassing 7.7 million people in less than a decade (R4V, 2024), this accounts for approximately one fifth of Venezuela’s total population—a country that had been among the most prosperous in the region. Four out of every five Venezuelans have relocated to other countries in the region, transforming many of them into receiving nations when they were not before.

HEMISPHERIC FLOWS AND PROLONGED TRANSIT IN THE POST-PANDEMIC ERA
The COVID-19 pandemic had a profound impact on human mobility, as it did in many other areas. The closure of over 90 per cent of the world’s borders not only restricted the possibility of migration but also resulted in the trapping and uncertainty of populations in transit. This included over 75,000 individuals under the MPP program, who were awaiting progress in their asylum process but were left stranded due to its suspension. Many others who had arrived in Mexico without initiating any procedure were also affected. Furthermore, the pandemic provided a pretext for the implementation of various migration policies under the guise of “sanitary” measures.

This holds true for Title 42, a policy enacted under U. S. health law that began in March 2020, during the Trump administration. This policy enabled the immediate expulsion of any individual attempting unauthorized entry into the country, denying the opportunity to seek asylum under the pretext of preventing the spread of contagious diseases. As a result, all immigration and asylum procedures were suspended, leaving people stranded in Mexican border cities for extended periods. Faced with desperation, frustration, and uncertainty, many attempted to cross into the United States only to be systematically deported back to Mexico under Title 42.

As the pandemic unfolded, the Biden administration starting on January 2021, has kept the MMP in place until October 2022 and Title 42 until May 2023. Even the U. S.-Mexico land borders were among the last in the world to reopen, in November 2023, disrupting the passage of people who had historically lived and worked on opposite sides of the border, as well as impacting the commercial crossing of one of the world’s most dynamic borders.

It is difficult to pinpoint the exact start of the post-pandemic era, but as life gradually returned to normal, migrations too took on a renewed dynamism. In fact, these migration flows have become increasingly hemispheric and diverse, with people arriving from different parts of the world and crossing a significant portion of the continent. The onset of COVID-19 potentially delayed some emerging migratory trends, alongside introducing new effects of the pandemic that drive migration. On one hand, the supposedly open-door rhetoric of the Biden administration, along with announcements such as the end of the MPP and Title 42, may have fueled migration interest. Conversely, the post-pandemic economic conditions of several Latin American countries, coupled with political and institutional crises across the region and the rise of governments with varying political ideologies (both right and left) perceived as migration-unfriendly, have also contributed to recent migratory movements. In this context, social media platforms such as TikTok, YouTube, and WeChat, have played a pivotal role in promoting the idea that “now is the time to migrate.”

These converging factors have created fertile conditions leading to an increased migration pattern from southern to northern parts of the continent. While many Latin American and Caribbean countries were initially open to receiving migrants, particularly Venezuelans, over time and with sustained migration flows, they have tightened immigration requirements and control measures. For instance, many countries have introduced visa requirements for various nationalities, making not only entry into the countries challenging but also transit through them. A notable example is the shift from the early days of the Venezuelan displacement, around 2015, when migrants could enter most countries in the region with only a passport. Nowadays, twenty-three of the thirty-three countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, including Mexico, have implemented tourist visa requirements.

This situation has fueled a significant surge in irregular migration from South America to North America, primarily through the Darien jungle—a territory that connects Colombia with Panama that has become a daily transit route for thousands. Known for its dangerous terrain due to its orographic and natural characteristics, the route is also plagued by instances of violence and sexual abuse against those who cross it. In 2023, over half a million people crossed this route (National Government of the Republic of Panama, 2023), twice as many as in 2022, and this trend shows no signs of stopping: from January to March 2024, more than 110,000 individuals crossed, making a 25.8 per cent increase compared to the same period in 2023 (Gobierno Nacional de la República de Panamá, 2023).

The odyssey of these hemispheric migrations extends far beyond crossing the jungle. After passing through Colombia and Panama, migrants must navigate through five additional countries— Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala—before reaching Mexico and its over 3000-kilometer border with the United States. Whether formally or informally, crossing fees across these countries are a ubiquitous reality. Some have explicit and formal policies, like Panama’s “Operation Controlled Flow” or the agreements facilitating unimpeded bus transit between Panama and Costa Rica. In contrast, some countries, like Nicaragua and Honduras, impose safe-conduct or transit fees, while other countries—Guatemala and Mexico—charge discretionary fees collected by a range of licit and illicit actors. The proliferation of visa requirements and heighted border controls through the region, coupled with the influence of criminal organizations, has rendered this journey dangerous, protracted and financially burdensome.

On the other side of the continent, the U. S. government has continued to implement measures aimed at discouraging, deterring and containing migratory flows. As a result of the increase in forced migration and the scarcity of regular migration avenues, nearly all individuals arriving in the U. S. apply for asylum, with some of them also doing so in Mexico. Therefore, the U. S. government has introduced an online appointment system, CBP One (https://www.cbp.gov/about/mobile-appsdirectory/cbpone), for requesting asylum, which is available in central and northern Mexico. This has led to migrants staying in Mexico for several months until they can secure an appointment. In Mexico City, makeshift camps have sprung up, particularly in downtown, where people spend the night while waiting for their appointment. This has given rise to something that has become a characteristic of the current situation: the convergence of many movements of people from diverse nationalities, who find themselves in a prolonged hemispheric transit and forced waiting.

Summarizing, migration policies of recent years have strengthen Mexico’s position as a crucial transit country, a bottleneck or buffer country (Varela, 2019). It is at the heart of a complex migratory dynamic that reinforces its role as a country of destination, transit and waiting point. Although Mexico’s role as a departure point for migrants has experienced a resurgence in recent years the numbers had been steadily declining since 2007, when a record 800,000 Mexicans attempted to cross into the United States. From 2021 onwards, the number surged abruptly, surpassing the 2007 levels in 2022. Consequently, Mexico’s status as a country of origin for migrants is still important.

Mexico’s approach as a destination presents a dual perspective: on the one hand, it has provided refuge to a significant number of individuals in need, despite substantial limitations in institutional capacities. Simultaneously, Mexico has adopted policies of containment and militarization, both independently and in collaboration with the United States, while maintaining restricted avenues for legal immigration. Overall, immigration levels in Mexico remain relatively low. According to the 2020 Population and Housing Census, only 1,212,252 people were born in another country (INEGI, 2020). Among them, 779,818 are children of Mexican citizens, legally recognized as Mexican nationals from birth. This means that, strictly speaking, the foreign population in Mexico totals less than half a million (432,434), comprising just 0.4 per cent of the total population.

Despite its relatively small scale, immigration still poses significant challenges. It is important to improve the measures that ensure the full integration of newcomers, thereby transforming migration into a beneficial opportunity for all. Recent studies highlight the positive impact of effective integration on the country, not only for refugees but also for businesses and Mexican society (ACNUR, 2023). Mexico has a rich history of welcoming migrants and refugees, predating the existence of specific laws. In return, this protection has facilitated the integration of individuals from diverse backgrounds into important spaces, including institutions like UNAM, where they contribute actively to the nation’s advancement and progress.

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